German Industry Is at Risk Amid US, China Trade War
(MENAFN) A new analysis published by Allianz Trade on Friday suggests that the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China could lead to considerable job losses within Germany's industrial sector.
The study highlights the potential economic fallout for Germany if Washington and Beijing fail to reach a resolution in their escalating trade tensions.
According to the report, in the absence of a trade agreement between the two global powers, Chinese exporters are expected to increasingly shift their focus toward European destinations, with Germany being a key target.
This redirected export flow could significantly heighten competition for German manufacturers.
Jasmin Groschl, a senior economist at Allianz Trade, estimates that this development may lead to the elimination of between 17,000 and 25,000 positions in Germany’s manufacturing sector.
She points out that “mechanical engineering, textile industry, non-metallic mineral products, electronics, computer, and motor vehicles industry” are particularly vulnerable.
This projected job loss accounts for roughly 0.2 percent to 0.3 percent of total employment in Germany’s industrial landscape.
Groschl further explains that the “tariff war” is disturbing international trade patterns, placing German firms under dual pressure.
On one hand, they face intensified rivalry and supply chain disruptions due to their close ties with China.
On the other, Germany's heavily export-driven economic model is being increasingly impacted by changes in overseas markets.
The report also estimates that, without a bilateral settlement, China could forfeit up to USD239 billion in exports to the United States.
In response, Chinese businesses may seek to compensate by expanding into alternative markets, potentially boosting exports to the European Union by approximately USD80 billion.
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